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Housing Storm Leaves UK Exposed, Skews Policy: ...

By Mike Dolan
LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line.
And a residential real estate quake would hurt many economies far more, amplifying the bond market ructions of the past 12 months if inflation can't be contained quickly enough to allow central banks to stop tightening in 2023.
Overall housing activity - construction, sales and the related demand for goods and services that goes with housing churn - contributes an estimated 16-18% of gross domestic product annually in the United States and Britain. If you loved this post and you would certainly like to obtain additional facts concerning EvdEN eve naKLiYat kindly go to our own web page. That's well over $4 trillion for the former and half a trillion in the UK.
With long-term U.S.

fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat.
And as property has ridden the bond bull market of low inflation and interest rates for evDEN eVe nakliyat much those intervening decades - the sub-prime mortgage crash of 2007-2008 apart - any risk of a paradigm shift in that whole picture is a mega concern.
Twenty years ago, after the dot.com bust and stock market crash led to a puzzlingly mild global recession, The Economist magazine fronted with a piece entitled "The houses that saved the world" - concluding lower mortgage rates, refinancing and home equity withdrawal had offset the hit to corporate demand.
But it's much less likely to come to the rescue after this year's stock market swoon, if only because interest rates are heading even higher into 2023 and evDeN evE NakLiyAT many now fret about potential distress and delinquency in the sector next year.
Some 10% of global fund managers polled by Bank of America this month think real estate in developed economies is the most likely source of another systemic credit event going forward.
And Britain, which even the Bank of England EVDen evE NAKliYaT assumes has already entered recession, is particularly vulnerable.